The hottest natural rubber is under pressure, and

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Natural rubber is under pressure, and the trend in June is still not optimistic.

I. Market Review

since mid April 2010, the natural rubber market as a whole has experienced a sharp correction. Since April 15, the price of Shanghai Jiao futures has fallen continuously from the high level, and the price has fallen from around 25900 yuan/ton, successively falling below the integer level. Especially on May 14, the volume increase of Shanghai Jiao futures fell sharply, breaking through the support near the low of 22000 yuan in early February, further opening up the room for decline, and market confidence has been greatly shaken. On May 17, the lowest price of Shanghai Jiao futures fell to 20890 yuan/ton, with a decline of more than 19% in about four weeks, However, in the last week of May, stimulated by the stabilization and rebound of the domestic stock market, the large price difference between futures and cash and the strong rebound of the peripheral markets, speculative funds actively entered the market, driving the strong upward trend of Shanghai Jiaotong, breaking through the average line on the 5th, 10th and 20th in succession, and coming out of the continuous rebound market. On the whole, the reason for the weak performance of the natural rubber market in the early stage is not only its weak fundamentals, but also the rising dollar and the sharp decline in the commodity market caused by the continuous fermentation of the peripheral markets, especially the European debt crisis, which are also important stimulative factors that make the rubber prices continue to fall. The recent rebound is supported by the short-term positive factors of some equipment, The overall stabilization of the commodity market in the international market from a low level also brought upward momentum

II. Fundamental analysis

1 The advent of the peak tapping season has led to a rapid increase in supply

the global supply of natural rubber has obvious seasonal characteristics. According to the statistical report provided by the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC), which accounts for 94% of the global supply, March and April each year are the lowest months of natural rubber production. In its monthly report in May, ANRPC predicted that the supply of natural rubber from members would increase by 6.2% to 9.369 million tons in 2010, while the figures in the three years since 2007 were 0.2%, 0.0% and -3.6% respectively. If we examine the sum of the monthly natural rubber production of the five major rubber producing countries in the world - Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and India, we can find that 2 we hope to find new materials to replace ABS by 2012. The total production of the five countries in March and April 2008 was 584000 tons and 607000 tons respectively, and the production of the following months from May to October was 64 Between 20000 tons, the output was 428000 tons and 502000 tons in March and April 2009, and 56% from May to October Between 60000 tons. These data clearly indicate that after entering may, the global supply of natural rubber will increase to a large extent

the following figure shows the annual output and growth rate of each country. It should be noted that the data of each country are from the forecasts of relevant government departments, excluding the data of Thailand. We assume that the growth rate of Thailand in 2010 is the same as that of last year, which is 2.4%, so its output in 2010 was 3.24 million tons

since 2010, the natural rubber supply of ANRPC member countries has increased year-on-year, although the growth rate is different. Thailand's natural rubber production in 2010 was 848000 tons, a significant increase of 24.5% over the same period in 2008 (681000 tons); Indonesia's natural rubber production in 2010 was 414000 tons, an increase of 6.4% over the same period in 2008 (389000 tons); Malaysia's natural rubber output in 2010 was 332500 tons, a 36.7% increase over the same period in 2008 (243300 tons). The total output from May to July is expected to be 246000 tons, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year; India's natural rubber output in 2010 was 260500 tons, an increase of 8.5% over the same period in 2008 (1.24 million tons). The total output from May to July is expected to be 177000 tons, an increase of 12.0% year-on-year. Vietnam's natural rubber output in 2010 was 111300 tons, an increase of 24.5% over the same period in 2008 (89400 tons). The total output from May to July is expected to be 172800 tons, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year. China's natural rubber output in 2010 was 62400 tons, Compared with the same period in 2008 (62300 tons), it increased by 0.2%. The total output from May to July is expected to be 229000 tons, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year. The natural rubber output of Sri Lanka in 2010 was 56800 tons, an increase of 15.0% compared with 49400 tons in the same period in 2008). The total output from May to July is expected to be 43500 tons, an increase of 45.5% year-on-year. The natural rubber output of Cambodia in 2010 was 11300 tons, an increase of 37.8% compared with the same period in 2008 (8200 tons), From May to July, the total output is expected to be 11000 tons, an increase of 57.1% year-on-year

2. The demand for natural rubber in ANRPC has accelerated since 2010

in ANRPC, the consumption of natural rubber in China, India and Malaysia is the largest, and the sum of the demand of these three countries accounts for about 45% of the total demand for natural rubber in the world. In the first four months of 2010, the import and consumption of natural rubber in these three countries increased significantly. From January to April 2010, the consumption of natural rubber in China, India and Malaysia increased by 25.5%, 11.7% and 13.6% year on year respectively

China accounts for about 32% of the total global demand for natural rubber. In the first four months, China's imports of natural rubber and composite rubber increased by 17.3% and 42.7% at an annual rate, respectively. It is estimated that the total consumption of natural rubber in China will increase by 10.2% to 3.35 million tons in 2010

the import volume of natural rubber in Malaysia surged by 30.4% at an annual rate in the first four months, about 253000 tons, compared with 194000 tons last year

3. China's natural rubber production and import and export

from January to March every year is the trough of China's natural rubber production. After entering April, the production will increase rapidly. According to the latest forecast, the total output of China's natural rubber in May, June and July is 67000 tons, 80000 tons and 82000 tons respectively, and the total output in the two months is about 7000 tons more than last year

in terms of imports, the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China in May showed that China's natural rubber imports in April 2010 were 140000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22% and a month on month decrease of 26.32%. In April, China imported 630000 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. The main reason for the sharp decrease in import volume in April was that the local spot price in Southeast Asia was generally high in April, and the domestic spot price was relatively low, so the domestic natural rubber market was dominated by consumption inventory in that month. Since then, with the sharp decline of rubber prices, the prices in foreign main production areas have been falling, which has eliminated the previous barriers to import. Large domestic tire enterprises have mostly bought foreign spot goods on bargain hunting and accumulated a certain amount of inventory. On the other hand, the domestic inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has been digested slowly, maintaining at about 100000 tons for most of the time, but at the end of May, with a certain rebound in rubber prices, the digestion speed of local inventory accelerated

In terms of inventory, the natural rubber inventory of Shanghai futures exchange continued to decline in May. As of May 28, the natural rubber inventory and registered warehouse receipts of the previous period were 20390 tons and 10335 tons respectively, which has approached the low point in May 2008. Such a low inventory will provide impetus for the rebound of Shanghai rubber price. In the coming June and July, due to the rapid increase of domestic production, the import volume may decrease month on month. It is expected that the output of natural rubber in China in June and July will be 80000 tons and 82000 tons respectively, the import volume will be 135000 tons and 130000 tons respectively, and the consumption will be 280000 tons and 280000 tons respectively, compared with 275000 tons and 260000 tons in these two months last year

4. Domestic and foreign automobile markets

China's automobile market: the growth momentum slows down and the inventory pressure increases.

domestic and foreign demand will be difficult to make a big breakthrough in the future. Although the global automobile and tire industry recovers gradually, the recovery momentum of each region is inconsistent, and its sustainability is still in doubt. On the whole, the shrinking consumption capacity of some downstream regions has reduced the demand for upstream raw materials. The rapid growth momentum of China's automobile production and sales has slowed down, and the inventory pressure is gradually emerging

according to the data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in April were 1.5635 million and 1.5552 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.61% and 34.37%, and a month on month decrease of 9.85% and 10.37%, which generally continued a good development situation. In the production and sales data in April, the sales of small displacement passenger cars fell again after March, which may be related to the weakening of purchase tax incentives. On the other hand, domestic auto inventory pressure is gradually emerging. According to statistics, the inventory of automobile manufacturers nationwide in April was 547500, an increase of 18100 over the end of March. However, if the inventory of circulation and terminals is included, the inventory of the whole industry may exceed 2million. Nearly 40% of the dealers said that the current inventory was too much, and more than half of the dealers believed that the inventory in the second quarter would increase compared with the first quarter. In May, the trading volume of the national auto market may continue to decline month on month. At present, some local auto markets have seen a wave of price reduction and promotion. These signs indicate that the domestic auto market may usher in a price inflection point, and the sales volume will also turn from the previous rapid growth to a slow increase

automobile markets in Europe and the United States: uneven recovery has restrained consumption

benefiting from the follow-up effect of the U.S. economic recovery and the consumption stimulus measures launched by car companies in March, the U.S. automobile sales volume in April was 982000, and the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate was about 11.5 million, which has been only lower than 11.7 million in March this year, significantly higher than 9.3 million in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%, However, the annual sales rate is still expected to be much lower than the annual sales level of 16million vehicles before the economic recession

with the uncertainty faced by the European economy, the performance of its auto market is far from expected. In April, the number of new car registrations in the European Union fell for the first time in 10 months. The latest data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers (ACEA) showed that the number of new car registrations in the European Union in April was 1.1347 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, the first decline in 10 months, mainly due to the gradual withdrawal of the support plans of European governments. It can be expected that this downturn in the European auto market is likely to continue and will continue to seek new support in the coming months

III. domestic spot market

on the domestic natural rubber spot market in May, the price trend of domestic standard one was basically the same as that of Shanghai Jiao, but its decline was much smaller than that of Shanghai Jiao. In this month or so, Shanghai Jiao operated under the spot price, and the price difference was mostly maintained between yuan/ton, and once widened to 2160 yuan/ton in extreme cases. Such a large price difference needs to be adjusted. In the last week of the end of May, with the rebound of Shanghai Jiao, the spot price followed its slight rise, and the price difference gradually narrowed to less than 1000 yuan per ton, which is currently about 800 yuan/ton

IV. peripheral market conditions

1 International crude oil market

international crude oil futures have a very profound impact on the price of natural rubber. However, after entering 2010, the correlation between crude oil and Shanghai rubber futures has decreased. At present, its correlation coefficient is about 0.834. This is because the influence of natural rubber's own fundamental information in determining the market has gradually increased, while the influence from the crude oil market has slightly decreased

although the EU and IMF have launched a 750 billion euro stabilization plan, the market is still seriously worried. The euro once fell to an 18 month low against the US dollar. Market concerns about the problems of the euro zone dragged down European and American stock markets and crude oil. The international crude oil market plummeted all the way in May, from above US $86 to around us $67, with a decline of nearly 23%. The weakness of the crude oil market cast a heavy shadow on the natural rubber market. From May 26 to 27, crude oil rebounded from its low level. The US durable goods orders in April, but the team placed high hopes on its future prospects. The growth rate was higher than expected, and China's expression of confidence in European bonds reduced the outside world's confidence in European bonds

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